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Factories growing despite global slowdown

Posted in Economy on 1st December 2011

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Job seekers prepare for career fair to open at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, January 6, 2011. REUTERS/ Segar

Job seekers prepare for career fair to open at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, January 6, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/ Segar

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 1, 2011 8:41am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, popping above 400,000 for the first time in just over a month and reinforcing the view that the battered labor market was healing only slowly.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 402,000 from an upwardly revised 396,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims at 390,000.

The U.S. economy has gathered steam in the second half of the year, expanding at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter. It could accelerate in the fourth quarter.

That could help the country avoid a new recession, which is expected in the euro zone. But economists still see a risk of a U.S. recession next year, especially if lawmakers allow extended unemployment benefits and a payroll tax cut to expire at the end of 2011.

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the data, although government statisticians had to estimate claims data for Alaska and Washington DC.

The four-week moving average of claims, a closely followed measure of labor market trends, increased 500 to 395,750.

Initial claims below the 400,000 mark are normally seen as pointing to some healing in the jobs market.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 35,000 to 3.74 million in the week that ended November 19.

Economists had forecast so-called continuing claims falling to 3.65 million from a previously reported 3.69 million.

A total of 7.01 million people claimed unemployment benefits under all programs during the week ending Nov 12, up 276,832 from the prior week.

(Reporting by Jason Lange, Editing by Andrea Ricci)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

Comments (1)

Jobless claims rise UNEXPECTEDLY.

Jobless claims fall more than EXPECTED then are revised up before they release the new UNEXPECTED rise the next week.

WHO are these hidden experts in the shadows that never seem to get the numbers right?

Take the 250,000 plus that retired in November along with the 1.6 million that got laid off and you kind of get the real picture of where we are.

And it’s not a pretty picture.

Dec 01, 2011 9:00am EST  –  Report as abuse


Private-sector jobs soar, payrolls forecasts rise

Posted in Economy on 1st December 2011

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Pedestrians walk past a ''Now Hiring'' sign in the window of a GNC shop in Boston, Massachusetts September 1, 2010. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Pedestrians walk past a ”Now Hiring” sign in the window of a GNC shop in Boston, Massachusetts September 1, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Brian Snyder

NEW YORK | Wed Nov 30, 2011 8:43am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The pace of job growth in the economy’s private sector accelerated in November, with U.S. employers adding 206,000 jobs, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The ADP National Employment Report surpassed economists’ expectations for a gain of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters survey. October’s private payrolls were revised up to an increase of 130,000 from the previously reported 110,000.

The report is jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

“The ADP news is very good news. The private sector is adding jobs,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York.

U.S. stocks index futures added to gains immediately after the data, though investors were also focused on an announcement of coordinated actions from major central banks to provide liquidity to the global financial system.

Treasuries prices extended losses after the data.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government’s much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

That report is expected to show a rise in overall nonfarm payrolls of 122,000 this month and a rise in private payrolls of 140,000.

Economists often refer to the ADP report to fine-tune their expectations for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr, additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

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Consumers more hopeful but home prices fall

Posted in Economy on 30th November 2011

A customer counts her money while waiting in line to check out at a Target store on the shopping day dubbed ”Black Friday” in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Jessica Rinaldi

October home sales rise 1.3 percent but prices fall

Posted in Economy on 29th November 2011

Construction workers continue work on a new subdivision of homes in San Marcos, California April 23, 2010. REUTERS/ Blake

Construction workers continue work on a new subdivision of homes in San Marcos, California April 23, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/ Blake

WASHINGTON | Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:53am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New single-family home sales rose in October and the supply of homes on the market fell to its lowest level since April of last year, showing some healing in the battered housing sector.

The Commerce Department on Monday said that sales edged up 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 307,000-unit annual rate, which was the fastest pace in five months yet still below analysts’ expectations.

The supply of new homes in the market would last 6.3 months at the current pace of sales.

The data fueled hopes the market for homes could at least be bottoming out following the previous decade’s boom and bust in the housing sector.

“This looks like a bottom. The market is stabilizing,” said Gregory Miller, an economist at Suntrust Bank in Atlanta.

Prices for U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on hopes that fresh proposals could be emerging out of Europe to help solve the region’s debt crisis.

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Graphic – US new home sales: link.reuters.com/dym35s

Graphic – U.S. Midwest manufacturing: link.reuters.com/gem35s

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Europe’s troubles are casting a pall over the economic outlook in the United States, which has made strides since the summer thanks to strong factory output and improved consumer spending.

Retail sales soared over the Thanksgiving weekend as shoppers scooped up discounted merchandise. Sales were record $ 52.4 billion, a 16.4 percent jump over the prior year, raising hopes consumer spending would be strong over the holiday season.

But falling home prices and tighter credit continue to be the bane of the recovery, which has progressed with fits and starts since the 2007-2009 recession.

The median sales price dropped 0.5 percent in October to $ 212,300, the lowest in a year, the Commerce Department said.

Falling prices could hamper the housing market by making buyers see homes as a bad investment. Still, compared to October last year, the median price was up 4.0 percent.

A housing market recovery has been frustrated by a glut of unsold properties and an unemployment rate that has been stuck around 9 percent.

Without a steady supply of credit and at least stable prices, a turnaround in the housing sector could still be some time away.

In a bid to shore up the sector, the government last month expanded its refinancing program to help homeowners who owe more than their houses are worth.

September’s sales pace was revised slightly down to 303,000 units from the previously reported 313,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales at a 315,000-unit rate. In the 12 months through October, new home sales are up 8.9 percent.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has held short-term interest rates at nearly zero since 2008 and has expanded its balance sheet in a bid to get credit to businesses and households.

That has helped bring 30-year mortgage rates to record lows. The problem is that even with low rates, many would-be borrowers still cannot get a loan.

(Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York)


Global economic recovery petering out: OECD

Posted in Economy on 28th November 2011

A dealer walks past an electronic board in the investors' gallery at the Amman Stock Exchange November 21, 2011. REUTERS/Muhammad Hamed

A dealer walks past an electronic board in the investors’ gallery at the Amman Stock Exchange November 21, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Muhammad Hamed

PARIS | Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:09am EST

PARIS (Reuters) – The global economic recovery is running out of steam, leaving the euro zone stuck in a mild recession and the United States at risk of following suit, the OECD said on Monday, sharply cutting its forecasts.

The threat of even more devastating downturns looms if the euro zone does not get to grips with its debt crisis and U.S. lawmakers fail to agree a spending-reduction plan, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned.

In the absence of decisive action from euro zone leaders, the European Central Bank (ECB) alone has the power to contain the bloc’s crisis, the Paris-based OECD said. In the United States, however, the Federal Reserve had little ammunition left.

While solid growth in big emerging economies would provide a boost, slumping global trade would drag on Chinese output, the OECD said.

Its twice-yearly Economic Outlook forecast world growth would slow to 3.4 percent in 2012 from 3.8 percent this year.

That marks a sharp fall from its previous outlook in May, when the OECD estimated the world economy would grow 4.2 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2012.

Struggling to contain an unprecedented debt crisis, the euro zone has already entered a recession and will eke out growth of only 0.2 percent in 2012, the OECD said, slashing its forecast from 2.0 percent in May.

CENTRAL BANKERS TO THE RESCUE?

The OECD said many key questions about the euro zone’s response to the debt crisis remain unresolved, raising doubts about even the bloc’s most solid economies, as demonstrated by Germany’s difficulties placing bonds with investors last week.

“What we see now is contagion rising and hitting probably Germany as well,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan told Reuters in an interview.

“So the first thing, the absolute priority, is to stop that and in the immediate the only actor that can do that is the ECB,” he added, urging the central bank to commit to a creating a cap on government bond yields as a way of calming the crisis.

With the Federal Reserve already flooding the financial system with liquidity, the U.S. central bank has even less room to act if the world’s biggest economy hits a downturn. That prospect was made all the more real by the failure of Congress to agree a deficit-reduction plan, without which deep spending cuts would be triggered.

“The resulting fiscal tightening, which would come automatically, would in our view likely generate a recession in the United States,” Padoan said.

Provided that the Congress does reach an agreement, then the U.S. economy is set to grow 1.7 percent in 2011 and 2.0 percent in 2012, down from May forecasts of 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

With world trade growth projected to slow to 4.8 percent in 2012 from 6.7 percent this year, even China would not be spared a sharp slowdown, the OECD said.

It forecast that growth in the emerging Asian economic power would slow to 8.5 percent in 2012 from 9.3 percent in 2011.

Slower global trade and confidence knocked by the euro zone’s debt crisis could trip up Germany, which the OECD estimated would grow only 0.6 percent in 2012 after a 3.0 percent expansion in 2011. Europe’s biggest economy has probably entered a shallow recession at the end of the year, the OECD said.

In a rare bright spot, the Japanese economy was seen rebounding sharply after this year’s earthquake and tsunami to achieve growth of 2.0 percent in 2012 following a contraction of 0.3 percent in 2011.

(Editing by Daniel Flynn and Catherine Evans)


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